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Mojtaba Khamenei, who the clerical Assembly of Experts named Iran’s new Supreme Leader, skipped the big funeral events for his father. State TV says it was for “security reasons.” Outside Iran, reporters and analysts see a different, darker picture: the absence has opened a power vacuum and set Tehran’s factions fighting for real control. That vacuum matters for the whole region — and for the United States and Israel — because who runs Iran decides whether talks stall or the hard men win.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s Absence: A Hole at the Top
The story is simple and embarrassing for Tehran: the new Supreme Leader is not showing up where leaders are supposed to show up. That fuels rumors about his health and about whether he can actually lead. Iranian officials insist security is the reason. Independent reporters note his name is being invoked by everyone — sometimes to claim his support, sometimes to claim he opposes deals. The result is the same: public-facing legitimacy is weak. When the country’s top figure is invisible, rivals smell opportunity.
IRGC, Pragmatists, and a Quiet Power Grab
The real fight is between the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps faction and the so-called pragmatists in the presidency and foreign ministry. IRGC commander Ahmad Vahidi and other security chiefs have the guns, the networks, and now the louder voice in day-to-day decisions. On the other side stand President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, who push talks and short-term deals. But “pragmatist” in Tehran is not “nice” — it just means they prefer deals over all-out chaos. The IRGC’s rise has already delayed negotiations and reshaped appointments. In plain terms: the generals are calling more of the shots.
Why This Matters to the U.S. and Israel
When a regime fractures at the top, mistakes happen. Delays in talks can mean more sanctions, more proxy attacks, and more risk of escalation. If the IRGC hardliners consolidate power, any chance for de‑escalation or limited diplomacy shrinks. American and Israeli planners should be watching who shows up at meetings in Tehran and who doesn’t. The missing face of Mojtaba Khamenei makes it easier for the IRGC to say “we speak for Iran” — and that is a very bad development for Western interests.
Let’s not pretend this is a neat clerical drama. It’s a dangerous scramble. The regime’s competitors are arguing over who gets the spoils of a state under stress, and the visible winner so far is the one with the muscle and the money networks. Policymakers should stop treating Tehran as a single, stable actor and start preparing for messy, unpredictable decisions from inside Iran. Meanwhile, Iranians deserve better than a leadership that hides its head and lets the generals run the show — but don’t bet on that anytime soon.
