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President Donald Trump’s approval in Arizona just hit a new low in Noble Predictive Insights’ AZPOP tracker. The poll, fielded Aug. 10–13, 2026, shows a 39% approve / 58% disapprove split — a net -19 — and NPI’s CEO, Mike Noble, says pocketbook pain and the Iran conflict are to blame. The number has Republican activists and campaign staffs in the state doing a double take.
What the NPI AZPOP poll actually shows
The topline is simple: 39% approve, 58% disapprove, net -19 among registered Arizona voters. NPI calls that its lowest Trump approval reading in the AZPOP series. The poll also finds Arizonans rate Trump poorly on handling the economy and the Iran conflict, with those issue nets around -25 — which NPI points to as the main drivers of the slide. NPI warns this could make Arizona tougher for Republican statewide candidates.
Why the numbers matter — but not panic yet
Yes, this is a red flag for Republicans. NPI flags Attorney General Kris Mayes and Secretary of State Adrian Fontes leading in hypothetical matchups, while State Treasurer Kimberly Yee looks safer. But before anyone starts writing victory speeches, remember method matters: NPI used an opt‑in online panel of about 1,040 registered voters and applied weighting. That’s different from probability-based polling and can widen the error in real-world prediction.
Down-ballot danger — or a wake-up call?
Mike Noble, Founder & CEO, Noble Predictive Insights, says the mix of rising costs and an unpopular foreign policy is “creating a toxic environment” for Republicans down-ballot. That’s a blunt way to say voters punish the party in power when they feel pain. If the GOP wants to hold Arizona’s offices, candidates will need to offer clear, local solutions on housing, inflation and energy — not just national slogans.
How Republicans should respond in Arizona
First, don’t let a single poll decide strategy. Second, treat these findings as a corrective: show voters how Republican leadership improves the cost of living, and explain the administration’s steps on the Iran situation in plain language. Third, let strong local figures lead with local wins — voters still like U.S. Senators Mark Kelly and Ruben Gallego and Governor Katie Hobbs on personal popularity, so Republicans must offer tangible, local answers rather than national theater.
Bottom line
The NPI AZPOP reading is a clear warning: President Donald Trump’s approval in Arizona is softening, driven by pocketbook issues and foreign policy concerns. But the poll’s opt‑in methods mean this is a directional signal, not a prophecy. Republicans in Arizona should treat it like a weather alert — prepare, adjust the campaign strategy, and stop assuming past margins will save them.
