Staff Reports
Donald Trump is back in the headlines with a 3-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll. Conducted among 872 registered voters in the Keystone State, Trump’s pre-assassination attempt numbers show him edging out Joe Biden 48% to 45%. Although the difference is within the poll’s margin of error of 3.8%, it spells trouble for Biden in his own birthplace.
Trump, not one to shy away from drama, survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Butler County, Pennsylvania, when a gunman’s bullet grazed his ear. If surviving a literal brush with death doesn’t galvanize voter support, one must wonder what will. After all, no one ever said Trump’s life was boring.
Poll conducted before Trump assassination attempt shows Biden trailing in Pennsylvaniahttps://t.co/M5PZoSS8M1 pic.twitter.com/aJX3Esujs5
— The Washington Times (@WashTimes) July 16, 2024
The poll results are steady from a similar survey in May, but what’s more interesting is a separate survey in Virginia. Conducted during the same period, it showed Biden with a meager 3-point lead, 48% to Trump’s 45%—again, within the 4.4% margin of error. Virginia hasn’t seen a Republican presidential victory since George W. Bush in 2004, but anything seems possible with Trump in the race.
But let’s not ignore the elephant—or donkey—in the room. Democrats are sweating bullets, especially with Vice President Kamala Harris outperforming Biden in these polls. Harris trails Trump by just one point in Pennsylvania, while in Virginia, she’s hanging five points over The Donald. Whispers of Biden stepping down are growing louder, especially after his less-than-stellar debate performance in June.
Down-ballot races seem to be the only ray of hope for Democrats right now. In Pennsylvania, Senator Bob Casey is enjoying an 11-point lead over Republican David McCormick, and in Virginia, Tim Kaine holds a whopping 18-point advantage over his GOP rival, Hung Cao. Maybe Biden’s dragging them down, or maybe it’s just Trump’s charm offensive in full swing.
The political landscape is shifting, and it’s anyone’s guess how it will play out come election day. But one thing is certain: with Trump dodging bullets—both metaphorical and literal—the drama is far from over.
