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The Pentagon has formally declared Operation Inherent Resolve in Iraq finished and ordered U.S. and British forces out of Erbil Air Base, marking the end of the 12‑year, Iraq‑based anti‑ISIS mission. Officials say the fight against ISIS will now be led by Iraqi Security Forces with U.S. training and intelligence support. That sounds tidy on paper. In the real world, the big question is who will actually keep Iraq safe when the Americans are no longer boots on the ground in the north.
What changed: U.S. troops leave Erbil, mission shifts
The Department of Defense announced an “orderly departure” from Erbil and called the mission a success against ISIS as an organized military threat. Combined Joint Task Force – Operation Inherent Resolve will keep operating in the region, but many coalition functions are being repostured outside federal Iraq. The Pentagon says the Peshmerga and Iraqi Security Forces will lead counter‑ISIS efforts going forward while the U.S. provides targeted training and intelligence — not full combat patrols.
Who fills the gap — and who’s celebrating?
This transition hands a heavy burden to Baghdad, and to be blunt, Baghdad has some uncomfortable roommates: Iran‑aligned militias that boasted they would celebrate the U.S. exit. Those groups were armed and empowered during the anti‑ISIS campaign and have often answered to Tehran more than to Iraqi ministries. Kurdish leaders are worried, too. The Peshmerga can fight, but they don’t have the same air defenses and strike options the coalition provided. Meanwhile, ISIS still exists as an insurgency, and militias that don’t want to disarm are eyeing the vacuum like vultures.
What Washington should actually do next
First, keep intelligence and strike options keyed up. Saying the U.S. will provide “targeted support” is fine, but vague phrasing won’t stop rockets or drone attacks aimed at American interests or our friends in Kurdistan. Second, lean on Baghdad to follow through on disarming and integrating militias — not by holiday speeches about “sovereignty,” but by clear benchmarks and consequences. Finally, maintain a credible regional posture from nearby bases so Iran and its proxies know the cost of aggression. Celebrating the end of a mission is fine; abdicating deterrence would be a mistake.
Operation Inherent Resolve did its job in destroying ISIS’s caliphate and giving Iraq breathing room. But closing the book in Erbil is a transition, not the last chapter of a story with loose ends. If Baghdad can actually disarm Iran‑backed militias and protect Kurds and Sunnis alike, this will be remembered as a successful handover. If it can’t, America’s withdrawal will look less like a victory parade and more like an invitation for trouble. That’s the reality worth watching.
