Staff Reports
After Joe Biden's underwhelming debate performance, it's clear the voters of New Hampshire are beginning to see the light. A new poll from New Hampshire, released on Monday, shows former President Donald Trump pulling ahead by two points. Trump now holds 44% of the vote, surpassing Biden’s weak 42%. Additionally, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. seems to be playing a spoiler role, drawing 4% of the vote as an independent candidate.
The numbers from Saint Anselm College are particularly grim for Biden, who enjoyed a comfortable 10-point lead in December. Now, only 39% of respondents have a favorable view of him, while a staggering 59% disapprove of his administration. On the other hand, Trump maintains a 42% favorable to 57% unfavorable rating, indicating that his approval ratings are holding up better than Biden’s.
New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp
— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024
Neil Levesque of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics noted that Biden leads among voters who dislike both candidates. However, more Democrats are defecting to independent candidates compared to Republicans. While 89% of Republicans stand firmly behind Trump, Biden only retains the loyalty of 82% of his party. This trend favors Trump and signals trouble for those expecting Biden to pull off a miraculous comeback in November.
Among those who watched the so-called debate, 54% declared Trump the winner, while a mere 6% sided with Biden. Furthermore, 39% claimed there was no winner, likely too embarrassed to acknowledge Biden's incoherent performance. Interestingly, 81% of respondents indicated that the debate wouldn't influence their vote in November, leaving one to wonder just how much worse Biden could have fared.
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report still labels New Hampshire as "likely Democratic," but these new figures from the Saint Anselm poll should be a wake-up call. The last time a Republican won New Hampshire was George W. Bush in 2000. Biden carried New Hampshire by seven points in the last election, but if current trends continue, his lead might disappear faster than Kamala Harris's credibility.
The Saint Anselm poll surveyed 1,700 registered voters between June 28-29, with a margin of error of about 2.3%. At this rate, the only thing Biden might be leading is the race to irrelevance.
