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The world is watching. With American forces tied down in the Middle East, China is sizing up Taiwan like a cat circling a canary. Gordon Chang warned it best: this is “Lucy and the football” all over again. If President Trump plans a friendly trip to Beijing while the U.S. is otherwise engaged, he risks sending the wrong message — and messages matter in geopolitics.
Why the Iran fight matters for Taiwan and U.S. strength
When soldiers, ships, and attention are focused in one region, rivals test the edges somewhere else. That is basic strategy. If China sees America stretched thin, Xi Jinping may be more tempted to act around Taiwan. That is not a prediction; it is common sense. Deterrence is about capability and will. If the world thinks the United States lacks the will, capability matters less.
Lucy, the football, and why optics are not harmless
Gordon Chang used the right metaphor. If America promises to protect allies but then looks away for a photo op, those promises lose value. A presidential trip to Beijing while troops are engaged in Iran would be a bad look. It would be the political version of waving a white flag while leaving the gate open. Diplomacy can be smart, but it should never come at the cost of deterrence.
What President Trump should do instead
First, the U.S. must impose real costs on China for aggressive moves. That means tougher export controls, targeted sanctions on bad actors, and making sure Taiwan has the weapons and logistics it needs. Second, America should step up naval patrols and allied exercises in the Indo-Pacific so China cannot read weakness into American posture. Third, coordinate with allies — Japan, Australia, India, and Europe — to show unity. These are not provocative steps; they are stabilizing ones. Strength prevents war. Weakness invites it.
We should want leadership that understands this simple math. A smile in Beijing will not keep Taiwan safe. Words without costly actions will not deter Xi Jinping. President Trump can and should use America’s leverage to protect allies and keep peace through strength. If he wants to visit China, let him make sure the world first sees a U.S. strategy that leaves no doubt about our resolve.
