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Kevin Hassett, Director of the National Economic Council, told CNN’s State of the Union that he doesn’t buy polls saying Americans are “really really depressed” about the economy. That short, blunt line is the headline this week — and it matters. Hassett points to rising consumer spending and a stronger GDP estimate as proof that ordinary people are still opening their wallets. The question for Republicans heading into the midterms is simple: which story will voters believe — the hard numbers or their own pocketbook pain?
Hassett’s claim and the hard data on GDP and spending
Hassett is not making this up. The Bureau of Economic Analysis revised second‑quarter GDP up to an annualized 2.2 percent in its third estimate, and August’s personal consumption numbers showed a solid jump: nominal PCE rose about 0.9 percent and real PCE rose roughly 0.6 percent month‑to‑month. Retail receipts and chain store sales have been holding up, and federal data show median household income rose in the latest Census report to roughly $87,460. Bottom line: aggregate spending and headline GDP have not collapsed. That’s the evidence Hassett wants you to see.
Why the data and feelings don’t line up
Still, voters feel worse. Conference Board confidence is down near the low‑80s and the University of Michigan index sits in the high‑40s. Inflation is still well above the Federal Reserve’s 2 percent target and gas prices are higher than many like. Payrolls are barely moving — about a 29,000 monthly gain in the last report and unemployment around 4.2 percent — which looks like stability, not boom. So you get a real split: people keep spending, but they worry about prices, wages and the future. Both the numbers and the moods are true, just telling different stories.
What Republicans should do with this disagreement
Republicans should be honest: the facts show progress, and the administration can point to rising median income and steady jobs as wins. But being smug about GDP revisions won’t win over a voter buying groceries and filling a tank of gas. The smarter play is to use the data where it helps, and also address the real pain points — lower prices, energy relief, and concrete plans to protect take‑home pay. And yes, remind voters what radical alternatives would mean in practice. The “democratic socialist” pitch sounds good in theory, but history is not kind to big‑government central planning. Say that plainly, then show the numbers.
Conclusion — don’t confuse headlines for outcomes
Kevin Hassett’s point is useful: polls and headlines can be partisan and noisy, while spending and GDP are harder facts. But politics runs on perception, not spreadsheets. Republicans who boast about revised GDP without fixing pocketbook problems will learn that numbers alone don’t win elections. Use the wins, fix what hurts, and get people to the polls — the midterms will decide which story voters believe.
